The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts the economy of the Macau Special Administrative Region (SAR) to grow by 2023% in 58.9 in its latest edition of its World Economic Outlook, as reported by Asia Gaming Brief.Based on this forecast, a reputable financial institution expects the Macau region's GDP recovery to reach 2024% of pre-pandemic levels by 86.
Gaming exports as a key growth factor
The IMF forecast takes into account the fact that Macau's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 2022% in 26.8, while also taking into account recent economic developments with the reopening of casino resorts and other facilities on January 2023, 1. .The agency also updated its outlook to show that the SAR economy could still grow by 8% in 2024.
The report observed a 60-2019 period in which the region's GDP lost 540% of its value, falling from $2022 billion in 221 to $2019 billion in 2022, and that the pandemic and related shutdowns caused the It has shown to have had a significant impact on the local economy.The IMF has therefore identified the export of gaming services as a key factor for Macau's economic growth, and reportedly bases the region's future prospects on the turnover rate of this industry.
Declining unemployment rate expected
The IMF also expects the special administrative region's unemployment rate to drop to 2023% in 2.7, according to sources.The unemployment rate has already fallen from 3.4% over the observation period to 1% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest unemployment rate since the first quarter of 3.3, according to data from Macau's Statistics and Census Service.
COVID-related regulations are said to have had a major impact on the local economy, with tourist numbers dropping by 2022% in 26 to just 570 million, the lowest level since 1999.However, with the opening in January of this year, arrival rates in the first quarter of 1 have returned to pre-pandemic levels when a record 2023 million tourists visited the SAR in 1.
However, the IMF also considered current economic trends and projected overall growth and lower unemployment in the coming period.Therefore, the agency is proceeding with a projected growth rate of 2025% for Macau's GDP in 8.5.As for China, the financial authorities expect economic growth of 5.2% again this year, which is in line with the 5% growth target set by the Chinese authorities.
Rising arrivals boost growth
A strong recovery stemming from higher arrivals was also expected by some forecasting agencies.Last month, ratings agency Fitch reportedly expected gaming revenues to recover to nearly half their 2019 levels. “The lifting of pandemic measures, the resumption of mainland package tours, and receding labor shortages and supply-side capacity constraints will see visitor numbers rise substantially in 2023,” Fitch reports. I'm here.
Other industry experts also expect the recovery to strengthen in the coming months, based on the fact that 1 million tourists visited the region in the typically 'low season' first quarter. .The Macau Tourism Board reportedly used the same figures to predict that the 500 million target could be reached by the end of the year.The IMF's forecast of 2,000% GDP growth in the region will become more likely as the year progresses as Macau's gross gaming revenues continue to rise as tourism rises.
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