Bakara-chanOwu!Kukho iziphindaphindo ezi-3 ezilandelelanayo ze-6 kwi-roulette ephilayo.Ukusuka apha, ukuba ubheje kwikholamu ezi-3 ezingezizo iziphindaphindo ze-2, ungazuza ngemizuzwana.
Ngaphezu koko, ekubeni kukho ezibomvu ezi-8 ngokulandelelana ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ukuba ubheja kumnyama ngaxeshanye, ngokuqinisekileyo uya kuphumelela.Lol ndiyahamba ndiyahamba
2 imizuzu kamva
Bakara-chanMusa ukuba sisidenge! Iyamangalisa into yokuba kukho iziphindaphindo ezili-3 ezilandelelanayo zesi-12! ? ?Ngaphezu koko, i-14 emnyama ayiphumi ngokulandelelana! ? ?Yonke imali yam yabethwa ngumoya! ? ?Ndacaphuka, kuthethwa ngam.Ndimcaphukise kakhulu usisi wam! ? ? ?
RurekoUbuxoki bomngcakazi kukucinga ukuba akunakwenzeka ukuba iziphumo ezilandelelanayo ziphume zilandelelana.
Bakara-chanyintoni leyo?
Yintoni ubuxoki bomngcakazi?
ubuxoki umngcakaziUbuxoki bomntu ongcakazayo yimeko apho, xa ukuphindaphindwa kwesiganeko kuphezulu ngexesha elithile, ukuba nokwenzeka kweso siganeko senzeke kulingo olulandelayo ehle (okanye ngokuchaseneyo, ukuba nokwenzeka kwesiganeko ukwenzeka) bububuxoki bokukholelwa ukuba i-frequency yesenzeko iphantsi, ukuba nokwenzeka kokwenzeka kwesiganeko kuphezulu).Uluvo olunjalo luya kuba bubuxoki ukuba iziphumo eziboniweyo bezingenamkhethe ngokwenene kwaye ulingo ngalunye yinkqubo yestochastic ezimeleyo.
Le nkohliso inokuvela kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo, kodwa ixhaphake ngokukodwa kwiziganeko zokungcakaza. Ngokuqhelekileyo isetyenziselwa ukuchaza isenzeko (jonga ngezantsi) esenzeka eMonte Carlo Casino ngo-1913.[1]Ngoko ke,Monte Carlo ubuxokiIkwabizwa ngokuba yi (Monte Carlo fallacy).
Ikhonkco lereferensi:https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AE%E3%83%A3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%96%E3%83%A9%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AE%E8%AA%A4%E8%AC%AC
RurekoUkuba ufuna ukwazi ngakumbi malunga ubuxoki umngcakazi, funda phezulu kwi wiki.Kweli nqaku, ndiza kusebenzisa imizekelo eqhelekileyo.
Bakara-chanUm, ngamanye amazwi, bekungenakuphepheka ukuba ndilahlekelwe ngoku ...?
RurekoU-Bakara-chan usandula ukuthi, `Ekubeni umnyama ulandelelana, amathuba obomvu azakuba phezulu kwixesha elizayo'', `Njengoko uphinda-phindo lwesi-3 lulandelelana, ukuba nokwenzeka kokuphindwa ngokulandelelana kuka-3 kuya kuba sezantsi ngokulandelayo'', njl. Ekholelwa ukuba amathuba okufumana isiphumo esifanayo kumqolo uphantsi, wabheja kubhejo olungalandelelaniyo kwaye ulahlekelwe ngokumangalisayo.
Bakara-chaninjalo (elila)
Ngenxa yokuba ngokwemiqathango yamathuba, amathuba okuqhubeka ayehla.
Amathuba okufumana umnyama amaxesha angama-10 ngokulandelelana malunga ne-1024 kwi-1, kwaye amathuba okufumana i-3 yokuphindaphinda ngokulandelelana kwe-12 ngu-531441 kwi-1, akunjalo?
Akukho ndlela yokuba iqondo elinjalo lamathuba liya kufika.
RurekoLoo ngcamango bubuxoki, impazamo.Ngokuqinisekileyo, amathuba okuba abamnyama abalandelelanayo yi-1024 ngo-1.Nangona kunjalo, kwi-roulette yesiganeko esizimeleyo, nokuba zingaphi iziphumo ezilandelelanayo oye waba nazo kwixesha elidlulileyo, amathuba okuba ube mnyama okanye ubomvu kwixesha elizayo ngama-50%. (* Ukuthetha ngokuthe ngqo, kukho i-0, ngoko ke 48.6%)
Ukuyibeka ngokulula, kuyimpazamo ukucinga ukuba "ekubeni iziphumo eziqhubekayo zinokubonwa, kunokwenzeka ukuba iziphumo ezichaseneyo ziya kufumaneka" kwi-roulette yomsitho ozimeleyo kunye nokunye okunjalo.
Kungenxa yokuba isiphumo sangaphambili sasinje, kunokwenzeka ukuba kube njalo, akuthethi ukuba i-roulette yomcimbi ozimeleyo ayisebenzi, ayinamsebenzi.
Yiyo loo nto iyinkohliso yokuba iroulette yevidiyo kunye ne-roulette ephilayo azinantsingiselo kwaphela kwaye kulula ukuyiphumelela.
Akukho nto apho yonyusa amathuba.Phumla nje.
Umzekelo odumileyo sisiganeko esenzeka ngo-Agasti 1913, 8 kumdlalo we-roulette kwi-Monte Carlo Casino, apho ibhola yaya mnyama amaxesha angama-18 ngokulandelelana. amaxesha emgceni yi (26)26-1Lowo ngu-6660 kwi-1 yezigidi, esisiganeko esinqabileyo kakhulu. Umntu ongcakazayo owathi ngempazamo waqiqa ngelithi 'iroulette ibangele ukungalingani kokungakhethiyo nokuba umbala obomvu ufanele ulandele ngokulandelelanayo' ulahlekelwe zizigidi zeefranc ebhejela nantoni na ngaphandle komnyama." isangqa.
Bakara-chanOh thixo wam...
RurekoOku akusebenzi kwimidlalo yekhadi efana ne-blackjack usebenzisa amakhadi, okanye kwiimeko ezingezizo iziganeko ezizimeleyo, ezifana nezenziwe ngumntu.
Isicwangciso sokunyusa izinga lokuphumelela ngokubala lisebenzisa le mpembelelo.
Bakara-chanHmm, uthi kungcono ubheje ngenye indlela, uleqa kabuhlungu?
RurekoI-Wiki ithi, "Ukuba ingqekembe yemali iphosa iziphumo kwimisila emgceni, umngcakazi unokugqiba ukuba amathuba omsila anyukile. Esi sisigqibo esifanelekileyo, sikhumbula ukuba ingqekembe isenokungabi nabulungisa. Ewe, kwaye oku akunjalo. a fallacy.Umngcakazi ukholelwa ukuba imisila inokuvela kwaye akaboni sizathu sokutshintsha ukubheja kwiintloko.Nangona kunjalo, uthotho lwezilingo lunenkumbulo yeziphumo ezidlulileyo kunye neziphumo ezizayo.Kububuxoki ukucinga ukuba kukho utyekelo lokukholisa okanye ukungathandeki. ”
Ngoko ngaphandle kokuba kukho into esengqiqweni ngayo, yintelekelelo nje.
Ngokufana ne-RSI yeFX, abantu baseJapan bayisebenzisa njengesalathiso sokuchasana, kodwa iyafana nesetyenziswa ngokuqhelekileyo njengesalathiso esijonge phambili kumazwe angaphandle.
Nokuba yimpazamo okanye hayi, ngaba ngokwenene ukuphumelela?Yiloo nto ndiyithethayo.
Isiphelo: Ngaba inokusetyenziswa kwiroulette?
Bakara-chanOkwangoku, nokuba kukho ukuqhubeka kweziphumo, bendiyazi ukuba ayinamsebenzi.
Ke ukuba wenza ngokuchaseneyo, ungaphumelela, akunjalo?
RurekoKulungile... Andiqondi ukuba ungaphumelela.
Kwimeko ye-roulette, izinto ezingathandekiyo azihlangani ngaphandle kwenani elingenangqiqo lezilingo, ngoko kunokubizwa ngokuba lithamsanqa, kodwa kumava am, ukubheja kwinto ezayo kungcono kunokubheja kwinto engekhoyo. Ndicinga ukuba kungcono ukubheja.
I-bias ayinakuthintelwa kwiindawo ezimfutshane ezifana nezi sizibonayo.Ukuba kukho i-bias ephumayo, kunye ne-bias engaphumiyo, ndicinga ukuba kulula ukubetha i-bias ephumayo.
Kwelinye icala, nokuba uqhubeka ubheja kuphela kumanani ashushu, kukho iimeko ezininzi apho ngalo mzuzu ubhejayo, ufumana inani elibandayo ngaphandle kokubetha kanye, ngoko andinakukwazi ukwenza ngokubanzi.
Ukuba uzama ukubamba phezulu, kufana ne-teleco eyi-12 elandelelanayo (obomvu kunye nomnyama beza ngokungafaniyo).
Ngapha koko, akukho ngqiqweni, ke kuya kufuneka ufumane eyakho imithetho kwaye ulwe njengeqhinga le-de facto.
Bakara-chanEwe, xa sijonga umva, yimalini elahlekileyo ngenxa yale mpazamo...
Ndizakuzama ukuba ndingazenzi iimpazamo ukusuka ngoku ukuya phambili.
RurekoEkuphela kwendlela yokugcina ukuphumelela kukulwa emva kokwazi ukuba akukho nto.
Kukho indlela yokunciphisa ilahleko kunye nokwenza inzuzo, ngoko makhe sizame ukuphepha le mpazamo kuqala.
Ibhonasi isisombululo esinokwenzeka
Ubuxoki bomntu ongcakazayo lutyekelo olunzulu lwengqiqo ekunzima kakhulu ukuloyisa.Imfundo malunga nobume bokungakhethi buso ayisoloko ingqineka isebenzayo ekunciphiseni okanye ekupheliseni oku kubonakaliswa kobuxoki. Kuphononongo olwenziwa nguBeach noSwensson ngowe-1967, inqwaba yamakhadi anamanani azotyiweyo ayedla ngokusikwa, elinye ikhadi lazotywa kulo, lize liboniswe kulo mbandela, kwaye umxholo wawucelwa ukuba uqikelele umzobo ozotywe kwikhadi elilandelayo. Uyalelwe ukubaIzifundo zahlulahlulwe zangamaqela amabini, kwaye elinye iqela laxelelwa malunga nobukho kunye nobume bobuxoki bomngcakazi kwaye bayalelwa ngokucacileyo ukuba benze uqikelelo oluzimeleyo kumyalelo wekhadi langaphambili.Iqela lolawulo alizange lifumane olu lwazi. Izitayela zokuphendula zamaqela amabini zifana, zibonisa ukuba izifundo kumaqela omabini zenze izibikezelo ezisekelwe kubude bembonakalo elandelelanayo yomfanekiso ofanayo.Oku kwasikhokelela kwisigqibo sokuba ukwazisa nje malunga nokungakhethi akwanelanga ukunciphisa ubuqhetseba bomngcakazi.
Ukuba sesichengeni somntu kubuqhetseba bomngcakazi kunokuncipha ngokuya ngeminyaka. Uphononongo luka-1997 olwenziwa nguFischbein noSchnarch lwalawula iikhweshine kumaqela amahlanu abafundi abakumabanga 5, 7, 9, 11, kunye nabafundi beekholeji abaziingcali ekufundiseni imathematika.Akukho nasinye kwizifundo ebenoqeqesho lwangaphambili ngokunokwenzeka.Umbuzo wawusithi, "URonnie uye waphethula ingqekembe kathathu, kwaye bobathathu baye bavela phezulu. URonnie uza kuphosa enye ingqekembe. Ngawaphi amathuba okuba isihlandlo sesine nawo avele entloko?"Ngenxa yoko, i-5% yabafundi bebanga lesi-3, i-3% yabafundi bebanga lesi-1, i-4% yabafundi bebanga le-5, kunye ne-35% yabafundi bebanga le-7 baphendule ngelithi amathuba okufumana imisila mancinci kunamathuba okufumana imisila. waphendula. UFischbein kunye noSchnarch bacebisa ukuba ukuthambekela kokuxhomekeka kucalucalulo lwengqondo olufana nokumela i-heuristics kunokoyiswa ngobudala.
Njengesinye isisombululo esinokubakho, izazi ngengqondo zeGestalt uRoney noTrick bacebisa ukuba obu buxoki bunokusonjululwa ngenxa yokuhlanganisana.Xa iziganeko zexesha elizayo, ezinjengokugibisela ngengqekembe zemali, zichazwa njengenxalenye yolandelelwano, nangona ingekho ngqiqweni, umntu uziqwalasela ngokuzenzekelayo iziganeko ezinxulumene neziganeko zexesha elidluleyo, nto leyo ekhokelela kubuxoki bomngcakazi.Le nkohliso inokuncitshiswa kakhulu ukuba umntu ucinga ukuba zonke iziganeko zizimele.
I ngxelo
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Iposti eyoyikekayo.