Ayini amanga womgembuli?Incazelo enemininingwane!Kumele kufundwe kulabo abalahlekelwa ku-roulette nge-contrarian!

2023 iminyaka 8 ngenyanga 21 Usuku

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Bakara-chan

O!Kukhona iziphindaphinda ezi-3 ezilandelanayo zoku-6 ku-roulette ebukhoma.Kusukela lapha, uma ubheja ngamakholomu angu-3 ngaphandle kweziphindaphinda ezingu-2, ungazuza ngamasekhondi.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba kukhona okubomvu oku-8 okulandelanayo kuze kube manje, uma ubhejela okumnyama ngokuhambisana, uzowina nakanjani.Ngizohleka

2 imizuzu kamuva

Bakara-chan

Akusona isilima! Kuyamangaza ukuthi ukuphindaphinda koku-3 izikhathi eziyi-12 zilandelana! ?? ??Ngaphezu kwalokho, abamnyama abayi-14 ngeke bavele ngokulandelana! ?? ??Yonke imali ishaywe umoya! ?? ??Hey, ngacasuka.Wangicasula ngempela ngodadewenu! ?? ?? ??

I-Rureko

Inkohliso yomgembuli umqondo wokucabanga, "Akunakwenzeka ukuthi imiphumela eqhubekayo izokhiqizwa ngokulandelana."

Bakara-chan

Kwenzenjani ...

Ithebula lokuqukethwe

Ayini amanga womgembuli?

Ukukhohlisa komgembuliInkohliso yomgembuli yinto lapho, lapho imvamisa yomcimbi iphezulu phakathi nenkathi ethile, amathuba aleso sigameko esenzeka ezivivinyweni ezilandelayo ehla (noma ngokuphambene, amathuba okuba kwenzeke isenzakalo). Lokhu amanga okukholelwa ukuthi uma imvamisa yokwenzeka iphansi, amathuba okuba kwenzeke ayanda.Umbono onjalo ubungaba amanga uma imiphumela ebukiwe ibingahleliwe ngempela futhi ukuhlola ngakunye bekuyinqubo ezimele ye-stochastic.

Lokhu kukhohlisa kungenzeka ezimeni ezihlukahlukene, kodwa kuvame kakhulu uma kuziwa ekugembuleni. Ngokuvamile kusetshenziselwa ukuchaza into eyenzekayo e-Monte Carlo Casino ngo-1913 (bheka ngezansi)^[1]Kusukela kulokhoI-Monte Carlo FallacyYaziwa nangokuthi (i-Monte Carlo fallacy).

Isixhumanisi esiyisethenjwa:https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AE%E3%83%A3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%96%E3%83%A9%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AE%E8%AA%A4%E8%AC%AC

I-Rureko

Uma ufuna ukwazi okwengeziwe ngamanga womgembuli, yifunde ku-wiki.Kulesi sihloko, ngizochaza ngokubhekisela ezibonelweni ezivamile.

Bakara-chan

Nokho, ngamanye amazwi, kwakungenakugwemeka ukuthi ngilahlekelwe ...?

I-Rureko

U-Bakara-chan uthe, "Ngenxa yokuthi okumnyama kuyaqhubeka, amathuba okuthi okubomvu kuzovela ngokulandelayo angaphezulu." "Ngenxa yokuthi ukuphindaphinda koku-3 kuyaqhubeka, amathuba okuthi ukuphindaphinda koku-3 kuqhubeke aphansi." Ukukholelwa ukuthi umphumela ofanayo mancane amathuba okuba ukuze uqhubeke, ubheja endaweni engalandelani futhi walahlekelwa ngokukhazimulayo.

Bakara-chan

Kulungile (ekhala)

Ngoba, ngokwe-stochastically, amathuba okuqhubeka awanciphi.
Amathuba okuthi umbala omnyama uzoba izikhathi ezingu-10 ngokulandelana cishe u-1024 ku-1, futhi amathuba okuthi ukuphindaphinda kuka-3 kuzoba izikhathi ezingu-12 zilandelana ngu-531441 ku-1?
Akunjalo ngamapompomu.

I-Rureko

Lowo mbono uyiphutha, iphutha.Impela amathuba okuba mnyama aqhubeke angu-1024 ngo-1.Kodwa-ke, esimweni se-roulette, okuwumcimbi ozimele, amathuba okuba omnyama nobomvu aphume ngokulandelayo angama-50% kungakhathaliseki ukuthi mingaki imiphumela elandelanayo umphumela wangaphambilini. (* Uma sikhuluma ngokuqinile, kukhona u-0, ngakho-ke 48.6%)

Ukukubeka kalula, umbono wokuthi "ngoba sikwazi ukubona imiphumela eqhubekayo, kulula ukuthola umphumela ophambene" awulungile ku-roulette yemicimbi ezimele.
Iqiniso lokuthi kungenzeka ngoba umphumela wangaphambilini ubunjena awusebenzi nge-roulette yemicimbi ezimele, akunandaba.
Kungakho kuwukukhohlisa ukuthi i-roulette yevidiyo ne-roulette ebukhoma akunangqondo ngokuphelele futhi kulula ukuyishaya.
Akukho lutho lapho okuphakamisa izingqinamba.Kuyimpumuzo nje.

Isibonelo esidumile isehlakalo esenzeka ngo-Agasti 1913, 8 kumdlalo we-roulette e-Monte Carlo Casino, lapho ibhola laba mnyama izikhathi ezingu-18 zilandelana. Amathuba okuthi ibhola liwele ngombala ofanayo (obomvu noma omnyama) 26 izikhathi zilandelana (26)^26-1Okusho ukuthi, kanye ezikhathini eziyizigidi ezingu-6660, okuyisenzakalo esiyivelakancane kakhulu. Umgembuli oveze ngephutha ukuthi "i-roulette idala ukungalingani ngokungahleliwe, okulandelwa uchungechunge lwama-reds," ulahlekelwe izigidi zama-franc ngaphandle kokubheja okumnyama. " indilinga.

Bakara-chan

Yini isiphithiphithi...

I-Rureko

Lokhu akusebenzi emicimbini engazimele njengemidlalo yamakhadi njenge-blackjack kusetshenziswa amakhadi noma awokwenziwa.
Amaqhinga okukhulisa amaphesenti okuwina ngokubala asebenzisa lo mphumela.

Bakara-chan

Hmmm, bese ubheja ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungcono ukuxosha umvini?

I-Rureko

I-wiki ithi, "Uma upheqa uhlamvu lwemali luphonse umugqa, umgembuli angase anqume ukuthi maningi amathuba okuthi uphenduke. Lesi isiphetho esinengqondo, ukhumbula ukuthi uhlamvu lwemali lungase lungabi nobulungisa. Yebo, lokhu akulungile. amanga.Abagembuli bakholelwa ukuthi asikho isizathu sokuvula ukubheja etafuleni, bekholelwa ukuthi kulula ukuphenyisisa.Nokho, uchungechunge lwezilingo lunenkumbulo yemiphumela edlule nemiphumela yesikhathi esizayo.Kuyiphutha ukucabanga ukuthi kukhona kuwukuthambekela kokuvuma noma okungathandeki. "Njengoba kunjalo, kungashiwo ukuthi ukucabanga okumatasa akulona iphutha.

Ngamanye amazwi, inkolelo nje ngaphandle uma kukhona okunengqondo.

Njenge-RSI ye-FX, abantu baseJapane bayisebenzisa ngokuphambene, kodwa emazweni angaphandle kuvamile ukuyisebenzisa njengenkomba yokushuba phambili.
Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kuyiphutha noma cha, ingabe empeleni iyawina?Kulungile.

Isiphetho: Ingabe ingasetshenziswa ku-roulette?

Bakara-chan

Ngangazi ukuthi noma ngabe kunemiphumela eqhubekayo okwamanje, akusho lutho.
Bese ngiyazibuza ukuthi ngingakwazi yini ukunqoba uma ngenza okuphambene?

I-Rureko

Awu ... angicabangi ukuthi ungawina njalo.
Endabeni ye-roulette, amathuba awahlangani ngaphandle kwenani elingelona iqiniso lezilingo, ngakho-ke kungashiwo ukuthi kuyinhlanhla, kodwa ngokuhlangenwe nakho kwami, ukubheja endaweni eza kuyo kunokubheja endaweni lapho ayizi.Ngicabanga ukuthi kungcono ukuyenza.

Ukuchema kuzokwenzeka ngempela esikhathini esifushane esikubonayo.Uma kukhona ukuchema okuvelayo noma ukwenzelela okungaphumi, ngicabanga ukuthi ukuchema okuvelayo kulula ukukushaya.
Nokho, ngisho noma uqhubeka ukubheja kuphela inombolo eshisayo, kukhona izimo eziningi lapho ngeke uwine ngisho kanye lapho ukubheja futhi kuyoba inombolo ebandayo, ngakho ngeke kushiwo ngaphandle kwemibandela.
Uma uzama ukuxosha umvini, kuzoba namakhasethi e-teleco angu-12 alandelanayo (okuhlukile okubomvu nokumnyama).

Ayikho indlela yokwenza noma kunjalo, ngakho-ke kufanele uthole umthetho wakho futhi ulwe njengesu le-de facto.

Bakara-chan

Hhayi-ke, uma sibheka emuva, ingakanani imali encibilikile ngenxa yalokhu kukhohlisa ...

Kusukela manje kuqhubeke, ngizozama ukwenza isiqiniseko sokuthi awekho amaphutha.

I-Rureko

Kufanele ngilwe ngemuva kokwazi ukuthi ayikho nhlobo indlela yokuqhubeka nokuwina.

Kukhona indlela yokwenza inzuzo ngemuva kokunciphisa ukulahlekelwa, ngakho-ke masiqinisekise ukuthi alikho iphutha kulokhu.

Isixazululo esingenzeka sebhonasi

Inkohliso yomgembuli wukuchema okujulile okugxilile okunzima kakhulu ukukunqoba.Imfundo mayelana nemvelo yokungahleliwe ayizange ibonakale iphumelela ekwehliseni noma ekuqedeni lezi zimpawu zamaphutha. Ocwaningweni lwango-1967 lwase-Beach kanye ne-Swensson, abafundi bavame ukusika inqwaba yamakhadi adwetshiwe, badwebe elinye lawo ukuze libonise esihlokweni, futhi babikezele umumo odwetshwe ekhadini elilandelayo elidwetshiwe.Izihloko zahlukaniswa zaba amaqembu amabili, iqembu elilodwa elaziswa ngobukhona kanye nemvelo yamanga omgembuli futhi layalelwa ngokucacile ukuthi lilindele ngokuzimela ekhadini le-oda langaphambilini.Iqembu lokulawula alinikezwanga lolu lwazi. Izitayela zokuphendula zamaqembu amabili zazifana, okubonisa ukuthi izifundo kuwo womabili amaqembu zenze izibikezelo ngokusekelwe kubude bokubukeka okulandelanayo kwesimo esifanayo.Lokhu kwaholela esiphethweni sokuthi kwakungenele ukwazisa ngokungahleliwe ukuze kuncishiswe amanga womgembuli.

Ukuthambekela komuntu emangeni okugembula kungase kwehle ngokuya ngeminyaka. Ucwaningo luka-Fischbein noSchnarch lwango-1997 lwahlola amaqembu amahlanu abafundi besihlanu, besikhombisa, besishiyagalolunye, beshumi nanye, kanye nabasekolishi abagxile ekufundiseni izibalo.Asikho isifundo esinemfundo yangaphambili mayelana nokungenzeka.Umbuzo wawuwukuthi, "URonnie wajikijela uhlamvu lwemali kathathu futhi itafula laphuma kathathu. URonnie uhlose ukuphinde ajikijele uhlamvu lwemali. Kuthiwani ngokunokwenzeka kokuthi itafula liphume okwesine?"Ngenxa yalokhu, u-5% wabafundi bebanga lesi-7, u-9% wabafundi bebanga lesi-11, u-5% wabafundi bebanga lesi-3, no-3% wabafundi bebanga le-1 baphendule ngokuthi “mancane kunamathuba okuphuma endleleni.” Akekho owaphendula. U-Fischbein kanye no-Schnarch bathi ukuthambekela okuncike ekucabangeni okuchema njengokumela i-heuristics kunganqotshwa ngokuya ngeminyaka.

Njengesinye isixazululo esingaba khona, izazi zokusebenza kwengqondo ze-Gestalt u-Roney no-Trick basikisela ukuthi ukuqoqana kungase kuqede lokhu kukhohlisa.Uma umcimbi wesikhathi esizayo, njengokuphonsa uhlamvu lwemali, uchazwa njengengxenye yokulandelana, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kungenangqondo kangakanani, umuntu ucabangela ngokuzenzakalelayo izehlakalo ezihlobene nezehlakalo zesikhathi esidlule, okuholela ekukhohliseni komgembuli.Lokhu kukhohlisa kungancishiswa kakhulu uma umuntu ebheka zonke izenzakalo njengezizimele.

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