Unyengeri hwomubhejeri ndehupi?Tsanangudzo yakadzama!Inofanirwa kuverenga kune avo vanorasikirwa muroulette ne contrarian!

Muna January 2023 8 21 Day

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Bakara-chan

Oh!Kune matanhatu akateedzana akawanda evatatu mune live roulette.Kubva pano, kana iwe uchibheja pamakoramu maviri asiri akawanda e3, unogona kuwana mumasekonzi.

Uyezve, sezvo paine 8 reds mumutsara kusvika zvino, kana iwe uchibheja pavatema panguva imwe chete, iwe unozohwina.Lol ndiri kuenda ini

2 maminitsi gare gare

Bakara-chan

Usapusa! Zvinoshamisa kuti kune gumi nemaviri akateedzana akawanda evatatu! ? ?Chii zvakare, dema 3 haina kubuda mumutsara! ? ?Mari yangu yese yakarohwa nemhepo! ? ?Ndakaita hasha, zviri pamusoro pangu.Ndakasvotesa sisi vangu! ? ? ?

Rureko

Kunyepera kwemubhejeri kufunga kuti kashoma kuti zvimwe zvinotevedzana zvibude zvichitevedzana.

Bakara-chan

chii ichocho

Zviri mukati

Unyengeri hwomubhejeri ndehupi?

unyengeri hwevabhejeriKunyepa kwemubhejera kunoreva kuti kana kuwanda kwekuitika kwechiitiko kwakakwira panguva yakatarwa, mukana wechiitiko ichocho chinoitika mumiyedzo inotevera unenge wakadzikira (kana, zvakasiyana, Uku ndiko manyepo ekutenda kuti kana kuwanda kwechiitiko kwakaderera. , mukana wekuti chiitiko chiitike unowedzera.Izvi hazvina kunaka kana zvakaonekwa zvakangoitika zvechokwadi uye muyedzo wega wega uri wakazvimirira we stochastic process.

Kunyepa uku kunogona kuitika mumamiriro akasiyana siyana, asi kunonyanya kuitika kana zvasvika pakubhejera. Kazhinji inoshandiswa kutsanangura chiitiko chakaitika kuMonte Carlo Casino muna 1913 (ona pazasi)^[1]Naizvozvo,Monte Carlo hunyengeriInonzi zvakare (Monte Carlo fallacy).

Reference link:https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AE%E3%83%A3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%96%E3%83%A9%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AE%E8%AA%A4%E8%AC%AC

Rureko

Kana iwe uchida kuziva zvakawanda nezve hunyengeri hwemubhejeri, verenga pamusoro pewiki.Muchikamu chino, ndichashandisa mimwe mienzaniso yakajairika.

Bakara-chan

Um, nemamwe mazwi, zvakanga zvisingadzivisiki kuti ndarasikirwa izvozvi ...?

Rureko

Bakara-chan achangobva kuti, ``Sezvo dema richitevedzana, mukana wekutsvuka uchange wakakwira nguva inotevera'', ``Sezvo kuwanda kwe3 kuchitevedzana, mukana wekuti 3 wakapetwa kanotevedzana uchange wakaderera unotevera'', nezvimwe. Achitenda kuti mukana wekuwana mhedzisiro yakafanana mumutsara wakaderera, akabheja pane asiri-anotevedzana mabheti uye akarasika zvinoshamisa.

Bakara-chan

Ndizvozvo (kuchema)

Nekuti maererano nezvinokwanisika, mukana wekuenderera mberi uri kudzika.
Mukana wekuita dema kagumi mumutsara ungangoita 10 muna 1024, uye mukana wekuwana gumi nemaviri akateedzana akawanda e1 ndeye 3 mu12, handiti?
Hapana nzira iyo mwero wakadaro wemukana uchauya.

Rureko

Pfungwa iyoyo inhema, mhosho.Zvirokwazvo, mukana wevatema vakateedzana ndeye 1024 mu1.Nekudaro, mune chaiyo yakazvimiririra chiitiko roulette, zvisinei kuti mangani akateedzana mhedzisiro yawakawana kekupedzisira, mukana wekuita mutema kana kutsvuka nguva inotevera i50%. (* Kunyatsotaura, pane 0, saka 48.6%)

Kuzvitaura zviri nyore, iko kukanganisa kufunga kuti "sezvo mhedzisiro inoenderera ichigona kucherechedzwa, zvingangoita kuti zvakapesana zvichawanikwa" mune yakazvimirira chiitiko roulette nezvimwe zvakadaro.
Nekuda kwekuti mhedzisiro yapfuura yaive sezvizvi, zvingangove zvakadaro, hazvireve kuti yakazvimirira chiitiko roulette haishande, hazvina basa.
Ndosaka iri manyepo kuti vhidhiyo roulette uye live roulette hazvina zvazvinoreva uye zviri nyore kuhwina.
Hapana chinowedzera maodd ipapo.Ingozorora.

Muenzaniso unozivikanwa ndewechiitiko chakaitika mumutambo weroulette paMonte Carlo Casino musi waNyamavhuvhu 1913, 8, apo bhora rakamhara pane dema ka18 kakatevedzana. Tichifunga kuti roulette mechanism yakanga isina tsarukano, Iko mukana wekuti bhora ridonha. nemuvara mumwechete (dzvuku kana dema) ka26 mumutsara ndiye (26)^26-1Ndiyo 6660 mumamiriyoni 1, chinova chiitiko chisingawanzoitiki. Mumwe mubhejeri akafunga zvisizvo kuti 'roulette yakakonzera kusaenzana kwezvirongeka uye kuti red inofanira kutevera munhevedzano' akarasikirwa nemamiriyoni emafranc achibhejera chero chinhu chisiri chitema." circle.

Bakara-chan

Oh mwari wangu...

Rureko

Izvi hazvishande kumitambo yemakadhi yakaita seblackjack uchishandisa makadhi, kana kune mamiriro asiri zviitiko zvakazvimirira, senge zvakaitwa nevanhu.
Matekiniki anowedzera chiyero chekukunda nekuverenga shandisa izvi.

Bakara-chan

Hmm, saka urikuti zviri nani kubhejera mhiri, kudzingirira tsura?

Rureko

Wiki inoti, "Kana coin rikakandwa richiita miswe yakatevedzana, mubhejeri anogona kusarudza kuti mukana wemiswe wawedzera. Iyi imhedziso ine musoro, tichirangarira kuti mari yacho inogona kunge isina kunaka. Hongu, izvi hazvina kunaka. a fallacy.Mubhejeri anotenda mutongo wekuti miswe inongouya uye haaoni chikonzero chekuchinja bheji kuti ive misoro.Zvisinei, nhevedzano yezviedzo ine ndangariro yezvakabuda kare uye mhedzisiro.Inhema kufunga kuti pane kombamiro yokuva akanaka kana kuti asingafariri.”

Saka kunze kwekunge paine chinhu chine musoro pamusoro pazvo, ingori fungidziro.

Zvakafanana neFX's RSI, vanhu vekuJapan vanoishandisa sechiratidzo chekupikisa, asi zvakafanana neinowanzo shandiswa sechiratidzo chekumberi kune dzimwe nyika.
Kungave kukanganisa kana kuti kwete, iko kuhwina chaiko?Ndizvo zvandinoreva.

Mhedziso: Inogona kuiswa kune roulette?

Bakara-chan

Parizvino, kunyangwe paine kuenderera kwemhedzisiro, ndaiziva kuti hazvina basa.
Saka kana ukaita zvakapesana, unogona kukunda, handiti?

Rureko

Zvakanaka ... Handifungi kuti unogona kukunda.
Kana iri roulette, izvo zvisingaite hazvisangani pasina nhamba isingaite yezviyedzo, saka izvo zvinogona kungonzi rombo rakanaka. Ndinofunga zviri nani

Kwenguva pfupi seyatinoona, kusarura kuchaitika zvechokwadi.Kana pane bias inobuda, uye bias isingabude, ndinofunga zviri nyore kurova bias inobuda.
Ukuwo, kunyangwe ukaramba uchibheja chete panhamba dzinopisa, pane dzakawanda zviitiko apo paunoisa bheti, unowana nhamba inotonhora pasina kuhwina kana kamwe chete, saka ini handikwanise kuita generalize.
Kana ukaedza kubata, zvinoita segumi nembiri dzakateedzana teleco (tsvuku nedema dzinouya neimwe nzira).

Chero nzira, hapana chinhu chakadai semhedziso, saka iwe unofanirwa kutsvaga yako wega mitemo uye kurwa sede facto zano.

Bakara-chan

Zvakanaka, mukutarisa, imarii yakarasika nekuda kwekukanganisa uku ...

Ndichaedza kusaita chero kukanganisa kubva zvino zvichienda mberi.

Rureko

Nzira chete yekuramba uchikunda ndeyekurwa mushure mekuziva kuti hapana mhedziso.

Pane nzira yekucheka kurasikirwa uye kuita purofiti, saka ngatiedze kudzivirira kukanganisa uku kutanga.

Bonus inogoneka mhinduro

Kunyepera kwemubhejeri kurerekera pakuziva kwakadzika midzi kunonetsa kukunda.Dzidzo pamusoro pechimiro chekusarongeka haina kugara yakaratidza kushanda mukudzikisa kana kubvisa uku kuratidzwa kwenhema. Muchidzidzo cha1967 chakaitwa naBeach naSwensson, murwi wemakadhi ane nhamba dzakadhirowewa paari aigarochekwa, kadhi rimwe raitorwa kubva mariri uye richiratidzwa kuzvidzidzo, uye zvidzidzo zvakakumbirwa kufungidzira nhamba yakadhirowewa pakadhi rinotevera. rairwa kutiZvidzidzo zvakakamurwa kuita mapoka maviri, boka rimwe rakazivisa nezve kuvapo uye chimiro chenhema dzemubhejeri uye akarairwa zvakajeka kuita fungidziro dzakazvimirira pane zvakamborongwa kare kadhi.Boka rekutonga harina kugamuchira ruzivo urwu. Maitiro ekupindura emapoka maviri aya aive akafanana, zvichiratidza kuti zvidzidzo mumapoka maviri aya zvakafanotaura zvichienderana nehurefu hwekuonekwa kwakatevedzana kwechimiro chimwe chete.Izvi zvakaita kuti tive nemhedziso yokuti kungozivisa nezvekusarongeka hakuna kukwana kuderedza kutadza kwemubhejeri.

Kunzwa kwomunhu kukunyepedzera kwomubhejeri kungaderera nezera. Ongororo ya1997 yakaitwa naFischbein naSchnarch yakapa mibvunzo kumapoka mashanu evadzidzi vegiredhi 5, 7, 9, 11, uye vadzidzi vekukoreji vainyanya kudzidzisa masvomhu.Hapana chimwe chezvidzidzo chaive nekudzidziswa kwekutanga mune mukana.Mubvunzo waive wekuti, "Ronnie apetenura coin katatu, uye ese ari matatu abuda musoro. Ronnie achakanda imwe coin. Ndeapi mikana yekuti kechina ibudewo musoro?"Izvi zvakaita kuti chikamu che5% chevana vegiredhi rechishanu, 3% cheva3, 1% chevapfumbamwe, uye 4% chevadzidzi vegiredhi 5 vakapindura kuti mukana wekuwana miswe waive mudiki pane mukana wekuwana miswe. akapindura. Fischbein naSchnarch vakaronga kuti hunhu hwekuvimba nekusarurana kwekuziva sekumiririra heuristics kunogona kukundwa nezera.

Seimwe mhinduro inogoneka, Gestalt psychologist Roney naTrick vanokurudzira kuti hunyengeri uhwu hunogona kugadziriswa semugumisiro weboka.Apo zviitiko zvomunguva yemberi, zvakadai sokukandwa kwemari, zvinorondedzerwa sorutivi rwenhevedzano, zvisinei nokuti zvine mwero, munhu anongofunga nezvezviitiko zvine chokuita nezviitiko zvomunguva yakapfuura, zvinotungamirira kukunyengera kwomubhejeri.Kunyepa uku kunogona kudzikiswa zvakanyanya kana munhu akafunga zviitiko zvese sekuzvimiririra.

Kana iwe uchida chinyorwa ichi
Nditevere!

Tevera @onkkoushiki kunditevera

Govera kana uchida!

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