Menyu Ichiran
Chifukwa cha nkhanza komanso kuchulukitsidwa kwa intaneti, zambiri zomwe zili patsambali zidachokera pa Ogasiti 2023 isanafike, ndipo zambiri zitha kukhala zachikale, chonde onani ulalo womwe ukupita kuti mudziwe zolondola komanso zaposachedwa. Zikomo.

Kodi chinyengo cha wotchova njuga ndi chiyani?Kufotokozera mwatsatanetsatane!Ayenera kuwerenga kwa iwo amene ataya roulette ndi contrarian!

Dinani apa kuti mupeze mndandanda wankhani zatsopano mwezi uliwonse

Gambler's Fallacy Thumbnail
Bakara-chan

O!Pali maulendo 3 otsatizana a 6 mu roulette yamoyo.Kuchokera apa, ngati kubetcherana pa 3 mizati kuti si machulukitsidwe 2, mukhoza kupeza mu masekondi.

Komanso, popeza pali zofiira 8 motsatizana mpaka pano, ngati mutabetcha pa zakuda nthawi yomweyo, mudzapambana.Lol ndikupita

2 mphindi pambuyo pake

Bakara-chan

Musakhale opusa! Ndizodabwitsa kuti pali 3 motsatizana ma multiples a 12! ? ?Kuphatikiza apo, wakuda 14 satuluka motsatira! ? ?Ndalama zanga zonse zidawonongeka! ? ?Ndinakwiya, ndi za ine.Ndinamukwiyitsa kwambiri sister wanga! ? ? ?

Rureko

Kulakwa kwa wotchova njuga ndiko kuganiza kuti n’zokayikitsa kuti zotsatira zotsatizana zidzatuluka motsatizana.

Bakara-chan

chimenecho ndi chiyani

Zamkatimu

Kodi chinyengo cha wotchova njuga ndi chiyani?

chinyengo cha otchova njugaKulakwitsa kwa otchova njuga kumatanthauza kuti ngati kuchulukira kwa zochitika kumakhala kokulirapo panthawi inayake, mwayi wa zomwe zimachitika m'mayesero otsatirawa udzakhala wotsika (kapena mosiyana, Ndiko kulakwitsa kukhulupirira kuti ngati kuchuluka kwa zochitika kumakhala kotsika, mwayi woti chochitikacho ndi chochuluka).Lingaliro ili ndilabodza ngati zotsatira zomwe zawonedwa zilidi mwachisawawa ndipo kuyesa kulikonse ndi njira yodziyimira yokha.

Kunyenga uku kungabwere muzochitika zosiyanasiyana, koma ndizofala kwambiri pazochitika za njuga. Zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pofotokoza zochitika (onani m'munsimu) zomwe zinachitika ku Monte Carlo Casino mu 1913.[1]Chifukwa chake,Monte Carlo chinyengoImatchedwanso (Monte Carlo fallacy).

Ulalo wolozera:https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AE%E3%83%A3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%96%E3%83%A9%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AE%E8%AA%A4%E8%AC%AC

Rureko

Ngati mukufuna kudziwa zambiri zachinyengo cha otchova njuga, werengani pa wiki.M'nkhaniyi, ndigwiritsa ntchito zitsanzo zodziwika.

Bakara-chan

Um, mwa kuyankhula kwina, zinali zosapeŵeka kuti ndinataya pompano...?

Rureko

Bakara-chan wangonena kuti, ``Popeza zakuda zimatsatizana, kuthekera kofiira kudzakhala kokulirapo nthawi ina'', ``Popeza machulukitsidwe a 3 amatsatizana, mwayi wochulukitsa motsatizana wa 3 udzakhala wotsika'', ndi zina zotero. Pokhulupirira kuti mwayi wopeza zotsatira zomwezo pamzere ndizochepa, adabetchera mabetcha osatsatizana ndipo adataya modabwitsa.

Bakara-chan

Ndiko kulondola (kulira)

Chifukwa ponena za kuthekera, mwayi wopitilira ukupita pansi.
Kuthekera kokhala wakuda ka 10 motsatizana ndi pafupifupi 1024 mu 1, ndipo mwayi wopeza 3 motsatizana wochulukitsa wa 12 ndi 531441 mu 1, sichoncho?
Palibe njira yoti mwayi wotero ungabwere.

Rureko

Lingaliro limenelo ndi bodza, kulakwitsa.Zachidziwikire, kuthekera kwa anthu akuda motsatizana ndi 1024 mu 1.Komabe, mumasewera odziyimira pawokha, mosasamala kanthu kuti munapeza zotsatira zingati zotsatizana nthawi yatha, mwayi wokhala wakuda kapena wofiira nthawi ina ndi 50%. (* Kunena zoona, pali 0, kotero 48.6%)

Kunena mwachidule, ndikulakwitsa kuganiza kuti "popeza zotsatira zosalekeza zitha kuwonedwa, ndizotheka kuti zotsatira zosiyana zitha kupezeka" mumasewera odziyimira pawokha ndi zina zotero.
Chifukwa chakuti zotsatira zam'mbuyo zinali chonchi, zikhoza kukhala choncho, sizikutanthauza kuti roulette yodziimira payekha siigwira ntchito, zilibe kanthu.
Ndicho chifukwa chake ndi chinyengo kuti kanema roleti ndi moyo roleti alibe tanthauzo ndi zosavuta kupambana.
Palibe chomwe chimawonjezera mwayi.Ingopumulani.


Chitsanzo chodziwika bwino ndi zomwe zinachitika pamasewera a roulette ku Monte Carlo Casino pa Ogasiti 1913, 8, pomwe mpirawo unatera pa wakuda ka 18 motsatizana. mu mtundu womwewo (wofiira kapena wakuda) nthawi 26 motsatana ndi (26)26-1Izi ndi 6660 mwa 1 miliyoni, zomwe ndizochitika kawirikawiri. Wotchova njuga amene anaganiza molakwa kuti 'roulette inachititsa kuti zinthu zizichitika mwachisawawa ndiponso kuti zofiira ziyenera kutsatira motsatizana' anataya ndalama zambirimbiri za ma franc akubetcherana pa chilichonse kupatulapo zakuda." circle.

Bakara-chan

Oo Mulungu wanga...

Rureko

Izi sizikugwira ntchito pamasewera amakhadi monga blackjack pogwiritsa ntchito makhadi, kapena zochitika zomwe sizili zochitika paokha, monga zopangidwa ndi anthu.
Machenjerero omwe amawonjezera kuchuluka kwa kupambana powerengera amagwiritsa ntchito izi.

Bakara-chan

Mmm, ndiye mukunena kuti kuli bwino kubetcherana mbali ina, kuthamangitsa tsura?

Rureko

Wiki ikuti, "Ngati kuponya ndalama kumabweretsa michira motsatizana, wotchova juga angaganize kuti mwayi wa michira wawonjezeka. Awa ndi mfundo zomveka, pokumbukira kuti ndalamayo singakhale yachilungamo. Inde, izi siziri choncho. wotchova njuga amakhulupirira kuti chigamulo choti mchira ndi chotheka kubwera ndipo sawona chifukwa chosinthira kubetcha kukhala mitu. pali chizoloŵezi cha kukhala okoma kapena kusayanja.”

Kotero pokhapokha ngati pali chinachake chomveka pa izo, ndi lingaliro chabe.

Mofanana ndi FX's RSI, anthu a ku Japan amagwiritsa ntchito ngati chizindikiro chotsutsana, koma m'mayiko akunja, ndizofanana ndi zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati chizindikiro choyang'ana kutsogolo.
Kaya ndikulakwitsa kapena ayi, kodi ndikupambana?Ndicho chimene ine ndikutanthauza.

Kutsiliza: Kodi ingagwiritsidwe ntchito pa roulette?

Bakara-chan

Pakalipano, ngakhale pangakhale kupitiriza kwa zotsatira, ndinadziwa kuti sizinali zofunikira.
Ngati ndi choncho, kodi simungapambane ngati mutachita zosiyana?

Rureko

Chabwino, sindikuganiza kuti mukhoza kupambana.
Pankhani ya roulette, zovuta sizingafanane popanda kuyesedwa kosawerengeka, kotero kuti zitha kutchedwa mwayi.

Kwa nthawi zazifupi ngati zomwe tikuwona, kukondera kudzachitikadi.Ngati pali kukondera komwe kumatuluka, ndi kukondera komwe sikumatuluka, ndikuganiza kuti ndikosavuta kugunda kukondera komwe kumatuluka.
Komano, ngakhale mupitirize kubetcherana kokha pa manambala otentha, pali nthawi zambiri pamene inu kuika ndalama, inu kupeza nambala ozizira popanda kupambana ngakhale kamodzi, kotero ine sindingakhoze generalize.
Mukayesa kupeza, zili ngati 12 zotsatizana teleco (zofiira ndi zakuda zimabwera mosinthana).

Komabe, palibe mtheradi, chifukwa chake muyenera kupeza malamulo anu ndikumenya nkhondo ngati njira ya de facto.

Bakara-chan

Chabwino, m'mbuyo, ndi ndalama zingati zomwe zinatayika chifukwa cha cholakwika ichi ...

Ndiyesetsa kusalakwitsa chilichonse kuyambira pano.

Rureko

Njira yokhayo yopitirizira kupambana ndikumenya nkhondo mutadziwa kuti palibe mtheradi.

Pali njira yochepetsera zotayika ndikupanga phindu, kotero tiyeni tiyese kupewa cholakwika ichi poyamba.

Bonasi zotheka yankho

Chinyengo cha otchova njuga ndi kukondera kozama kwachidziwitso komwe kumakhala kovuta kwambiri kuthana ndi.Maphunziro okhudza chikhalidwe cha chisawawa nthawi zonse sakhala othandiza kuchepetsa kapena kuthetsa kuwonekera kwachinyengo kumeneku. Mu kafukufuku wa mu 1967 wa Beach ndi Swensson, mulu wa makadi okhala ndi ziwerengero zojambulidwapo kaŵirikaŵiri ankadulidwa, khadi limodzi linatengedwa mmenemo ndi kuwonetsedwa ku nkhanizo, ndipo maphunzirowo anafunsidwa kuti angoyerekezera chiŵerengero chojambulidwa pa khadi lotsatira. kulangizidwa kutiAnthu adagawidwa m'magulu awiri, gulu limodzi lidadziwitsidwa za kukhalapo ndi chikhalidwe cha zolakwika za wotchova juga ndipo adalangizidwa kuti azineneratu mosatengera zomwe adapanga kale.Gulu lolamulira silinalandire chidziwitso ichi. Njira zoyankhira magulu awiriwa zinali zofanana, kusonyeza kuti maphunziro m'magulu onsewa adaneneratu molingana ndi kutalika kwa maonekedwe otsatizana a mawonekedwe omwewo.Izi zinatifikitsa ku lingaliro lakuti kungodziwitsa za chisawawa sikokwanira kuchepetsa chinyengo cha wotchova njuga.

Chiwopsezo cha munthu ku chinyengo cha wotchova njuga chingachepe ndi ukalamba. Kafukufuku wa 1997 wa Fischbein ndi Schnarch adapereka mafunso kwa magulu asanu a ophunzira a giredi 5, 7, 9, 11, ndi ophunzira aku koleji omwe ali ndi luso lophunzitsa masamu.Palibe maphunziro omwe anali ndi maphunziro am'mbuyomu mwina.Funso linali lakuti, "Ronnie watembenuza khobidi katatu, ndipo onse atatu atulukira mitu. Ronnie aponyanso ndalama ina.Zotsatira zake, 5% mwa ana a giredi 3, 3% mwa a giredi 1, 4% mwa asukulu 5, ndi 35% mwa a 7 adayankha kuti mwayi wopeza mchira ndi wocheperako kuposa mwayi wopeza michira. anayankha. Fischbein ndi Schnarch analingalira kuti chizolowezi chodalira malingaliro amalingaliro monga kuimira heuristics akhoza kugonjetsedwa ndi zaka.

Monga njira ina yotheka, akatswiri a maganizo a Gestalt Roney ndi Trick akusonyeza kuti chinyengo ichi chikhoza kuthetsedwa chifukwa cha magulu.Pamene zochitika za m’tsogolo, monga ngati kuponya ndalama, zikulongosoledwa kukhala mbali ya kutsatizana, mosasamala kanthu ndi mopondereza, munthu amangolingalira zochitika zokhudzana ndi zochitika zakale, zomwe zimatsogolera ku kulakwa kwa wotchova juga.Kunyenga kumeneku kungathe kuchepetsedwa kwambiri ngati munthu akuwona zochitika zonse kukhala zodziimira.

Mawu atsiku Kodi angakhale mawu omwe angasinthe moyo wanu?

Kodi moyo ukupita mmwamba kapena pansi?Palibe kukonza kwa momwe zinthu ziliri.Chifukwa ngakhale simukula, nthawi idzadutsa.Kumbukirani... Kusamalira ndiko kukula.Sizokhudza kusunga momwe zilili ndi Masaomi Nozuki

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