Raws li lub npe qhia, lub sijhawm no kuv tau sim tshuaj xyuas ob-decker Dalambert.
Qhov kev txheeb xyuas zoo li cas yog tias nws tuaj yeem tswj tau qhov ntxiv, thiab nws zoo li lossis tsis zoo li nws tuaj yeem tswj tau.
Yog tias koj txaus siab, thov saib qhov txuas ntxiv.
Rau lub sijhawm tam sim no, ob lub tsev yuav bet rau cov txiaj ntsig tsis sib haum (baccarat player thiab bunker, roulette liab thiab dub, thiab lwm yam) hauv tib qhov kev ua si, yog li nws yuav yog qhov sib tw thawj koom ruam lossis ua txhaum txoj cai. kev paub. (Txawm hais tias feem ntau nws tsis tuaj yeem twv ntawm ob sab hauv baccarat nyob) Thov ua txhua yam ntawm koj tus kheej txaus ntshai.
Kuv sim simulate (?) Ob-decker Dalambert
Rau lub sijhawm tam sim no, nws yog ib zaj dab neeg ntawm "xav tias ob lub tsev tuaj yeem tsim tau (premise)".
Txij li thaum muaj 0 hauv roulette, cia peb xav tias hauv baccarat nyob, tus neeg ua si them ob zaug thiab bunker them 2 zaug.
Raws li kuv tau sau hauv qee tsab xov xwm, koj tuaj yeem pom tias ob qho tib si roulette thiab baccarat yuav raug nqi ntau npaum li koj tuaj yeem nrog lub txaj tiaj tus. (Saib daim duab hauv qab no)
Yog tias nws tiaj tus thiab tsis zoo, ua li cas txog kev twv txiaj uas nce lossis txo tus nqi thawj koom ruam?
Yuav ua li cas txog D'Alambert vim Martin thiab Monte Carlo tsis muaj kev xaiv tab sis ua qhov tsis zoo?Yog li nws yog qhov tseeb.
Case 1 Thaum thawj qhov nyiaj thawj koom ruam = XNUMX units
Nws yog ib qho pov thawj thaum koj nce lossis txo los ntawm 100 yen txhua zaus koj yeej lossis poob thaum pib ntawm 100 yen thawj koom ruam.
* Teem tsis tau thawj koom ruam hauv qab chav pib
* Sab saum toj yog tus neeg ua si thiab hauv qab yog lub bunker.
* Qhov tshwm sim yog 1 rau hits thiab 0 rau nco.
* Puas yog nws OK yog tias koj tsuas pom seb qhov nyiaj tau los thiab poob hauv qab yog qhov zoo lossis qhov tsis zoo?
・ Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm alternating yeej thiab poob
Nws yog tus qauv zoo tshaj plaws hauv D'Alambert.Nws yog ib qho qauv uas koj yeej tsis poob yog tias koj yeej thiab poob alternately.
・ Thaum muaj ob qhov yeej thiab poob
Yog tias muaj ob qhov kev yeej thiab ob qhov poob, yuav luag tsis muaj qhov sib txawv, thiab vim li ntawd, nws yuav nce ntxiv, yog li qhov no kuj yog tus qauv yeej.
・ Thaum muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees hauv kev ntaus
Txawm hais tias nyob rau hauv 4 mus rau 5 hits sib law liag, nws yog qhov tsis zoo thaum xub thawj, tab sis yog tias koj txuas ntxiv, nws yuav maj mam dhau los ua qhov zoo, yog li txawm tias qhov no koj tuaj yeem tswj hwm qhov zoo ntawm qhov sib npaug (yog tias qhov feem pua yuav sib tw) ...
・ Cov xwm txheej tsis xwm yeem
Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm irregularities, nws yuav yog ib tug ntxiv yog hais tias tus yeej feem pua converges (kwv yees 50%) raws li qhov tshwm sim tsis tau poob lub loj series ua ntej.
・ Yog tias koj plam 10 qhov kev ua si ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd qhov tshwm sim yuav tshwm sim
Yog tias koj poob 10 zaug hauv ib kab ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd yeej 10 zaug hauv kab, nws yuav tsis zoo li pom hauv daim duab saum toj no.
Tom qab ntawd, txawm tias kuv ntaus nthwv dej li ntawm 3 zaug sib law liag thiab qhov feem pua yuav tau rov qab los, nws dhau los ua qhov tsis zoo.
Muaj ib lub sij hawm thaum nws tau los ua ib qho ntxiv, tab sis yog tias muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees uas yuav ua rau tus thawj koom ruam qis tshaj plaws, nws yuav nyuaj rau kev rov qab los, yog li kuv pom tias nws yuav hnyav heev yog tias kuv poob 10 qhov kev ua si sib tw thaum pib. .
Qhov kuv pom
Los ntawm qhov xaus, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no, yog hais tias muaj ib tug tsis ncaj ncees lawm (feem ntau yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm thawj ntaj xws li thawj loj sib law liag) hais tias tus thawj koom ruam nrog tus thawj koom ruam tus nqi yog ua ob peb zaug los yog ntau tshaj, qhov tshwm sim yuav converged mus txog rau thaum xaus. Nws dhau los ua qhov zoo, txoj kev yog qhov nyuaj, thiab thawj qhov chaw, cov commission yog 0.05 npaug siab dua nyob rau hauv lub bunker, yog li nws tsis haum rau kev sib ntaus sib tua ntev.
Txhawm rau muab tso rau lwm txoj hauv kev, yog tias koj tsis muaj qhov tsis ncaj ncees ntawm 10 zaug lossis ntau dua (nyob ib puag ncig tus nqi thawj koom ruam) thaum pib lossis hauv nruab nrab, nws yuav luag zoo.Nws zoo nkaus li koj tuaj yeem ua qhov ntxiv ntawm ib qib uas koj tsis mloog cov haujlwm ntawm lub bunker.Wb mus tom ntej.
Case Yog tias thawj koom ruam tus nqi ≠ 1 units
Ntxiv rau, nws yog ib rooj plaub uas thawj thawj koom ruam pib ntawm 1000 yen thiab lub sab sauv thiab qis ntawm cov nyiaj yog 100 yen thaum yeej lossis poob, thiab qhov pib yog thaum cov nyiaj nce lossis nqis txawm tias koj yeej lossis poob los ntawm qhov pib. (Nws nyuaj rau to taub?)
Cia peb saib tus qauv zoo li yav dhau los.
・ Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm alternating yeej thiab poob
Oh?Tau kawg nws yog ib qho ntxiv, tab sis cov txiaj ntsig tau qis dua 100 yen thawj koom ruam pib.Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no, muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov pib, yog li lub luag haujlwm ntawm lub bunker muaj qhov cuam tshuam thiab nws yog ib qho ntxiv, tab sis nws xav tias hloov maj mam.
・ Thaum muaj ob qhov yeej thiab poob
Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no, kuv pom tias qhov kawg profit yog loj dua thaum kuv pib ntawm 100 yen.
Qhov no puas yog qhov kev xav tias qhov loj ntawm thawj thawj koom ruam tus nqi yog proportional?
Zoo, nws yog tus qauv uas tuaj yeem tswj tau qhov ntxiv.
・ Thaum muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees hauv kev ntaus
Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no, tsis muaj ntau qhov sib txawv, tab sis lub sij hawm ntawm tig zoo yog txawv, thiab qhov tshwm sim tom qab ntawd kuj txawv me ntsis.
Txawm li cas los xij, qhov no kuj yog ib qho qauv uas ua kom zoo.
・ Cov xwm txheej tsis xwm yeem
Muaj lub sijhawm zoo, tab sis qhov no zoo li nws yuav nyuaj los ua qhov zoo txawm tias qhov ua tau zoo sib xws.
Tom qab tag nrho, nws puas yog qhov tsis zoo thaum muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees los ntawm qhov pib?
・ Yog tias koj plam 10 qhov kev ua si ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd qhov tshwm sim yuav tshwm sim
Los ntawm txoj kev, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no, nws yog zoo nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntawm 10 sib law liag yeej tom qab 10 sib law liag poob, thiab vim li ntawd, txawm nyob rau theem thaum qhov tshwm sim tau converged, qhov tshwm sim yog ib tug marginal zoo ntau yam.
Txij thaum pib, nws tau muab tawm tias yog tias muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov nce lossis txo tus nqi thawj koom ruam, nws yuav tsis ncaj ncees thiab yog tias nws converges, nws yuav zoo.
Yog li txawm tias koj poob thawj qhov kev sib tw loj, yog tias koj tuaj yeem rov qab qhov tshwm sim, nws zoo li koj tuaj yeem ua rau nws zoo li qhov tshwm sim.
Qhov kuv pom
Piv rau 100 yen thawj koom ruam pib, nws yog qhov tsis zoo ntxiv yog tias nws yog lub teeb teleco lossis tsis ncaj ncees, tab sis yog tias muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees thiab qhov tshwm sim tuaj yeem rov qab tau, thawj qhov nyiaj thawj koom ruam ≠ 1 units yuav yog qhov ntxiv ...
Kuv pom tias tsis yog txhua yam phem (Konami)
Qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev xaus!
Lub sijhawm no, kuv tau sim tshuaj xyuas txhua tus qauv yob nrog ob qhov thawj thawj koom ruam pib qauv, tab sis yog tias thawj thawj koom ruam = 1 units, feem ntau ntawm lawv yuav zoo yog tias tsis muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees hauv thawj thawj koom ruam, thiab thawj tus thawj koom ruam ≠ Hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm 1 unit, nws muab tawm hais tias nws yog ib qho yooj yim mus ua ib tug ntxiv thaum muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees tshwm sim thiab qhov tshwm sim yuav rov qab tau.
Hauv lwm lo lus, kuv xav tias qhov no yog cov ntsiab lus.
Thaum thawj thawj koom ruam tus nqi = 1 units
・ Poob qauv → Nws ua nyuaj rau yob yas vim kev tsis ncaj ncees hauv thawj thawj koom ruam.
・ Kev yeej qauv → Koj yuav tsis poob tshwj tsis yog tias koj tsis txaus siab los ntawm thawj thawj koom ruam (Koj tuaj yeem yeej txhua yam koj ua tsuas yog tus qauv poob)
Thaum thawj thawj koom ruam tus nqi ≠ 1 units
・ Poob qauv → Yog tias qhov tshwm sim tsis tuaj yeem sib koom ua ke, nws yuav poob.
・ Yeej qauv →Yog tias koj tuaj yeem hloov qhov tshwm sim, koj tuaj yeem yeej tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi(* Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias nws tsis txaus ntseeg thiab poob rau qhov tsawg kawg nkaus thawj koom ruam, nws tsis tuaj yeem rov pib dua. Vim tias nws tsis tuaj yeem tiv thaiv qhov rub tawm)
Xaus!
Yog li, thawj qhov chawTxoj kev DalambertNws yog ib txoj hauv kev zoo heev yog tias koj tuaj yeem hloov qhov tshwm sim, tab sis nws hloov tawm tias koj tuaj yeem siv nws txawm tias koj tsis tau txais txiaj ntsig.
Tau kawg muaj cov qauv kom poob, tab sis muaj ntau cov qauv los yeej, yog li kuv vam tias nws yuav pab tau.
Kuv muaj peev xwm hloov txoj kev uas kuv thawj zaug tsis muaj caij nyoog los yeej nrog qhov muaj feem ntau.Tau kawg tsis kiag li.
Zoo, nws tsis tuaj yeem tsim ob qho tib si nyob baccarat nrog ib tus as khauj, tab sis yog tias koj tuaj yeem, "Tshaj tawm cov xwm txheej tshem tawm ntawm cov nyiaj tshwj xeeb uas muaj kev pheej hmoo tsawg" "Encom cov ntsiab lus" "hauv thawj qhov chaw, qhov ntawd yog txhua yam uas muaj kev pheej hmoo tsawg tab sis kuv tuaj yeem ua tau. nce nws."
Wow, kuv thov txim, Kuv xav tias kuv tuaj yeem ua tsis tau (nyeem ntawv sticks)
kawg!
Postscript Kuv yuav muab cov ntaub ntawv Excel
Kuv vam tias nws yuav pab tau.
Saib
Daim ntawv qhia (2 mob)
Qhov kev txheeb xyuas no yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws!
Tus nqi ntxiv yog siab ~ Kuv yuav sim nws!
Max Drawdown yuav mus npaum li cas yog tias kuv txuas ntxiv straddling khau ...
Yog hais txog $1000, nws yog ib qho zoo heev!
Kuv zoo siab kuv to taub lub ntsiab lol
Txawm hais tias koj straddle lub khau los yog tsis, nws yuav tsis ncaj ncees thaum nws tsis ncaj ncees lawm, thiab txawm tias nws nyob hauv 500 lub sij hawm, muaj qhov ua tau tias qhov feem pua ntawm ib sab yuav raug txiav los ntawm 40%, yog li qhov kev poob qis nyob ntawm thawj tus nqi thawj koom ruam, yog li feem ntau kuv tsis tuaj yeem hais dab tsi ~ (´-ω-`)
Kuv xav tias nws nyob ntawm seb koj ua dab tsi nrog kev poob lossis nyiaj tau los.
Kuv ntxiv cov ntaub ntawv Excel tom kawg ntawm kab lus, yog li thov siv nws yog tias koj nyiam ('ω') ノ