Bakara-chanʻŌ!Aia he 3 mau huahelu o 6 i ka roulette ola.Mai ʻaneʻi, inā pili ʻoe ma nā kolamu 3 ʻaʻole he mau helu o 2, hiki iā ʻoe ke loaʻa i nā kekona.
Eia kekahi, no ka mea he 8 mau ʻulaʻula i ka lālani a hiki i kēia manawa, inā pili ʻoe i ka ʻeleʻele i ka manawa like, e lanakila maoli ʻoe.Lol hele wau hele wau
2 minuke ma hope
Bakara-chanʻAʻole ia he naʻaupō! He mea kupanaha ka hoonui o 3 he 12 mau manawa! ?? ??Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia nā ʻeleʻele 14 i ka lālani! ?? ??Ua puhi ʻia nā kālā a pau! ?? ??ʻEā, ua huhū au.Ua hoʻonāukiuki loa ʻoe iaʻu i kou kaikuahine! ?? ?? ??
RurekoʻO ka hewa o ka mea piliwaiwai ke noʻonoʻo ʻaʻole paha e puka mai nā hopena hou aʻe.
Bakara-chanHe aha kēīa ...
He aha ka hewa o ka mea piliwaiwai?
Ka hewa o ka mea piliwaiwaiʻO ka hoʻopunipuni o ka mea piliwaiwai he mea ia, ke kiʻekiʻe ka alapine o kekahi hanana i loko o kekahi manawa, e emi ana ka manaʻo o kēlā hanana i nā ho'āʻo ma hope (a i ʻole, ʻo ke alapine o kahi hanana). ʻO ia ka hewa o ka manaʻoʻiʻo. ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hopena inā haʻahaʻa kona alapine.He wahaheʻe kēlā manaʻo inā he ʻoiaʻiʻo nā hopena i ʻike ʻia a ʻo kēlā me kēia hoʻokolohua he kaʻina hana stochastic kūʻokoʻa.
Hiki ke ala mai kēia kuhi hewa i nā ʻano ʻano like ʻole, akā maʻamau i nā hanana piliwaiwai. Hoʻohana mau ʻia e wehewehe i ke ʻano (e ʻike i lalo) i hana ʻia ma Monte Carlo Casino ma 1913.[1]No laila,Monte Carlo FallacyUa kapa ʻia ʻo ia (Monte Carlo fallacy).
loulou kuhikuhi:https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AE%E3%83%A3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%96%E3%83%A9%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AE%E8%AA%A4%E8%AC%AC
RurekoInā makemake ʻoe e ʻike hou aku e pili ana i ka hewa o ka mea piliwaiwai, e heluhelu ma ka wiki.Ma kēiaʻatikala, e hoʻohana wau i kekahi mau hiʻohiʻona maʻamau.
Bakara-chanʻAe, ʻo ia hoʻi, he mea hiki ʻole ke nalowale ...?
RurekoUa ʻōlelo wale ʻo Bakara-chan, ``No ka mea he ʻeleʻele ka ʻeleʻele, ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe o ka ʻulaʻula i ka wā e hiki mai ana'', ``No ka mea, ʻo ka hui pū ʻana o 3, he haʻahaʻa ka likelika o nā pāʻani hope o 3'', etc. Ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei he haʻahaʻa ka hopena o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka hopena like i ka lālani, pili ʻo ia i nā pili pili ʻole a nalowale loa.
Bakara-chanPololei (uē)
No ka mea ma ke ʻano o ka probability, ke iho nei ka probability o ka hoʻomau.
ʻO ka likelika o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka ʻeleʻele i 10 mau manawa ma ka lālani ma kahi o 1024 ma 1, a ʻo ka hiki ke loaʻa i 3 mau paʻi like ʻole o 12 he 531441 i ka 1, pololei?
ʻAʻohe ala e hiki mai ai kēlā degere o ka probability.
RurekoHe kuhi hewa kēlā manaʻo, he kuhihewa.ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻo 1024 ka nui o ka ʻeleʻele mau i ka 1.Eia naʻe, i ka hihia o ka roulette, kahi hanana kūʻokoʻa, ʻo ka nui o ka ʻeleʻele a me ka ʻulaʻula e puka mai ma hope aʻe he 50% ʻaʻohe mea e pili ana i ka nui o nā hopena hopena o ka hopena mua. (* ʻO ka ʻōlelo koʻikoʻi, aia he 0, no laila 48.6%)
No ka hoʻopuka maʻalahi, he kuhihewa ka noʻonoʻo ʻana "no ka mea hiki ke ʻike ʻia nā hopena hoʻomau, e loaʻa paha nā hopena kū'ē" i ka roulette hanana kūʻokoʻa a me nā mea like.
Ma muli wale nō o ka hopena ma mua e like me kēia, e like paha ia me ia, ʻaʻole ia he manaʻo ʻaʻole hana ka roulette hanana kūʻokoʻa, ʻaʻole ia he mea nui.
ʻO ia ke kumu he manaʻo ʻole ʻo ka roulette wikiō a me ka roulette ola he mea ʻole a maʻalahi ke lanakila.
ʻAʻohe mea ma laila e hoʻonui ai i nā pilikia.Hoʻomaha wale.
ʻO kekahi laʻana kaulana ʻo ia ka hanana i hana ʻia ma ʻAukake 1913, 8 ma kahi pāʻani roulette ma ka Hale Piliwaiwai Monte Carlo, kahi i hele ai ka pōleʻele i ʻeleʻele 18 mau manawa i ka lālani. ʻO nā manawa i ka lālani (26)26-1ʻO ia ka 6660 i loko o 1 miliona, he hanana loa ia. ʻO ka mea piliwaiwai i kuhi hewa ʻo 'roulette ke kumu o ke kaulike ʻole o ka randomness a ʻo ka ʻulaʻula e hahai ma hope' ua nalowale nā miliona o nā francs e pili ana i nā mea ʻē aʻe ma mua o ka ʻeleʻele.
Bakara-chanE kuʻu Akua...
RurekoʻAʻole pili kēia i nā hanana kūʻokoʻa ʻole e like me nā pāʻani kāleka e like me blackjack me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā kāleka a i ʻole nā mea hana.
Hoʻohana nā ʻano hana e hoʻonui i ka helu lanakila ma ka helu ʻana i kēia hopena.
Bakara-chanHmm, no laila ke ʻōlelo nei ʻoe ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka pili ʻana ma kēlā ʻaoʻao, e hahai ana i ka tsura?
RurekoWahi a ka wiki, "Inā loaʻa nā huelo i ka lālani, hiki i ka mea pāʻani ke hoʻoholo ua piʻi ka nui o nā huelo. He kuhi hewa. Manaʻo ka mea piliwaiwai i ka manaʻo e hiki mai ana nā huelo a ʻike ʻole i ke kumu e hoʻololi ai i ka bet i poʻo. aia ka manaʻo e ʻoluʻolu a maikaʻi ʻole paha."
No laila inā ʻaʻole he mea kūpono e pili ana i ia mea, he manaʻo wale nō ia.
E like me ka RSI o FX, hoʻohana ka poʻe Kepani iā ia ma ka ʻaoʻao, akā ma nā ʻāina ʻē he mea maʻamau ka hoʻohana ʻana iā ia ma ke ʻano he kuhikuhi o ka ʻāʻī mua.
He hewa paha a ʻaʻole paha, lanakila maoli?ʻO ia kaʻu ʻōlelo.
Ka hopena: Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia i ka roulette?
Bakara-chanNo ka manawa, ʻoiai inā he mau hopena, ʻike wau he mea ʻole ia.
No laila, inā ʻoe e hana ʻē aʻe, hiki iā ʻoe ke lanakila, ʻeā?
RurekoʻAe... manaʻo wau ʻaʻole hiki iā ʻoe ke lanakila.
I ka hihia o ka roulette, ʻaʻole e hui pū nā ʻano me ka helu ʻole o nā hoʻāʻo, no laila hiki ke kapa ʻia ʻo ka laki wale nō. Manaʻo wau ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi
No nā wā pōkole e like me nā mea a mākou e ʻike ai, e ʻike maoli ʻia ka manaʻo.Inā loaʻa kahi manaʻo i puka mai, a ʻaʻole i puka mai ka manaʻo, manaʻo wau e maʻalahi ka paʻi ʻana i ka manaʻo i puka mai.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ʻoiai inā e hoʻomau ʻoe i ka pili wale ʻana i nā helu wela, he nui nā hihia kahi i ka manawa āu e kau ai i kahi bet, loaʻa iā ʻoe kahi helu anu me ka lanakila ʻole hoʻokahi, no laila ʻaʻole hiki iaʻu ke hoʻonui.
Inā ʻoe e hoʻāʻo e alualu i ke kumu waina, aia he 12 mau lipine teleco (ʻulaʻula a ʻeleʻele hoʻi).
ʻAʻohe ala e hana ai, no laila pono ʻoe e ʻimi i kāu kānāwai ponoʻī a hakakā ma ke ʻano he hoʻolālā de facto.
Bakara-chanʻAe, i ka nānā ʻana, ehia ke kālā i nalowale ma muli o kēia hewa ...
Mai kēia manawa, e hoʻāʻo wau e hōʻoia ʻaʻohe hewa.
RurekoPono wau e hakakā ma hope o ka ʻike ʻana ʻaʻohe ala e hoʻomau i ka lanakila.
Aia kahi ala e ʻoki ai i nā poho a loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā, no laila e hoʻāʻo e pale mua i kēia hewa.
Bonus hiki ke hoʻonā
ʻO ka hoʻopunipuni o ka mea piliwaiwai he ʻano hoʻopaʻapaʻa noʻonoʻo a paʻakikī loa ke lanakila.ʻAʻole i hōʻoia ʻia ka hoʻonaʻauao e pili ana i ke ʻano o ka randomness i ka hōʻemi ʻana a i ʻole ka hoʻopau ʻana i kēia hōʻike hoʻopunipuni. I ka makahiki 1967 aʻo a Beach lāua ʻo Swensson, ua ʻoki pinepine ʻia kahi puʻu kāleka me nā kiʻi i kaha ʻia ma luna o lākou, ua huki ʻia kahi kāleka mai ia mea a hōʻike ʻia i nā kumuhana, a ua noi ʻia nā kumuhana e koho i ke kiʻi i kaha ʻia ma ke kāleka aʻe. kauoha iaUa māhele ʻia nā kumuhana i ʻelua pūʻulu, hoʻokahi hui i ʻike e pili ana i ke ola a me ke ʻano o ka hoʻopunipuni o ka mea piliwaiwai a ua aʻo pololei ʻia e hana i nā wānana kūʻokoʻa mai ke kauoha kāleka mua.ʻAʻole i loaʻa i ka pūʻulu mana kēia ʻike. Ua like nā ʻano pane o nā pūʻulu ʻelua, e hōʻike ana ua hana nā kumuhana o nā pūʻulu ʻelua i nā wānana e pili ana i ka lōʻihi o nā hiʻohiʻona ʻokoʻa o ke ʻano like.Ua alakaʻi kēia iā mākou i ka manaʻo ʻaʻole lawa ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana e pili ana i ka randomness e hoʻēmi i ka hewa o ka mea piliwaiwai.
Hiki ke emi ka ma'alahi o ke kanaka i ka hewa o ka mea piliwaiwai me ka makahiki. Ma ka makahiki 1997 na Fischbein lāua ʻo Schnarch i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ai nā nīnau nīnau i nā hui ʻelima o nā haumāna ma ka papa 5, 7, 9, 11, a me nā haumāna kulanui i ʻike i ke aʻo ʻana i ka makemakika.ʻAʻohe o nā kumuhana i hoʻomaʻamaʻa mua ʻia i ka probability.ʻO ka nīnau, "Ua hoʻohuli ʻo Ronnie i ke kālā ʻekolu manawa, a ua piʻi aʻe nā poʻo ʻekolu.ʻO ka hopena, 5% o nā papa 3, 3% o nā papa 1, 4% o nā papa 5, a me 35% o nā papa 7 i pane mai ua ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka huelo ma mua o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka huelo. i pane aku ai. Ua manaʻo ʻo Fischbein lāua ʻo Schnarch e hiki ke hoʻokō ʻia ka makemake e hilinaʻi i nā manaʻo cognitive e like me ka representness heuristics me ka makahiki.
Ma ke ʻano he hopena ʻē aʻe, ʻōlelo ʻo Roney a me Trick psychologists Gestalt e hoʻoholo ʻia kēia kuhi hewa ma muli o ka hui ʻana.Ke wehewehe ʻia nā hanana i ka wā e hiki mai ana, e like me ka hoʻolei kālā, ma ke ʻano he ʻāpana o ke kaʻina, akā naʻe me ka ʻole, e noʻonoʻo pono kekahi i nā hanana pili i nā hanana i hala, e alakaʻi ana i ka hewa o ka mea piliwaiwai.Hiki ke hoʻemi nui ʻia kēia kuhi hewa inā manaʻo kekahi he kūʻokoʻa nā hanana āpau.
Manaʻo hoʻopuka
Papa helu manaʻo (1)
ʻO ka pou kūlana.