Bakara-chanOh!Akwai ɗimbin yawa 3 a jere na 6 a cikin roulette live.Daga nan, idan kun yi fare akan ginshiƙai 3 ban da nau'ikan 2, zaku iya samun kuɗi cikin daƙiƙa.
Haka kuma, tunda akwai ja da baya 8 a jere zuwa yanzu, idan kun yi fare akan baki a layi daya, tabbas zaku ci nasara.Zan yi dariya
Bayan mintuna 2
Bakara-chanBa wawa ba ne! Yana da ban mamaki cewa yawancin 3 shine sau 12 a jere! ?? ??Haka kuma, baƙar fata 14 ba za su bayyana a jere ba! ?? ??Dukan kuɗin sun lalace! ?? ??Kai, na yi fushi.Lallai kin sanyani fushi akan 'yar uwarki! ?? ?? ??
RurekoAna kiransa yaudarar ɗan caca don yin tunanin cewa "ba shi yiwuwa a ci gaba da samar da sakamako mai ci gaba".
Bakara-chanMenene ...
Menene ruɗin ɗan caca?
Ra'ayin GamblerRubutun dan caca al'amari ne wanda idan yawan abin da ya faru ya yi yawa a cikin wani lokaci, yuwuwar faruwar lamarin a cikin gwaje-gwajen da suka biyo baya yana raguwa (ko akasin haka, yuwuwar faruwar al'amari) kuskuren imani ne. cewa idan yawan abin ya ragu, yiwuwar faruwar lamarin yana da yawa).Irin wannan ra'ayin zai zama ƙarya idan sakamakon da aka lura ya kasance bazuwar gaske kuma kowane gwaji tsari ne mai zaman kansa.
Wannan rugujewar na iya tasowa a yanayi daban-daban, amma ya zama ruwan dare musamman a al'amuran caca. Yawanci ana amfani da shi don bayyana abin mamaki (duba ƙasa) wanda ya faru a Monte Carlo Casino a 1913.[1]Daga hakaMonte Carlo FallacyHakanan aka sani da (Monte Carlo fallacy).
Hanyar magana:https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AE%E3%83%A3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%96%E3%83%A9%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AE%E8%AA%A4%E8%AC%AC
RurekoIdan kana son ƙarin sani game da ruɗin ɗan caca, karanta shi akan wiki.A cikin wannan labarin, zan yi bayani game da misalai na kowa.
Bakara-chanTo, a wasu kalmomi, ya kasance babu makawa cewa na yi hasara ...?
RurekoBakara-chan ya ce, “Saboda baki yana ci gaba, yiwuwar jan zai bayyana a gaba ya fi girma.” “Saboda sau 3 na ci gaba da ci gaba, yiwuwar yawan 3 zai ci gaba ya yi kadan.” Ganin cewa yuwuwar samun iri daya ne. sakamakon kasancewa a jere yana da ƙasa kaɗan, kun yi fare a kan wani wuri marar jere kuma kun yi hasara sosai.
Bakara-chanHaka ne (kuka)
Domin, a stochastically, yiwuwar ci gaba ba ya raguwa.
Yiwuwar baƙar fata zai zama sau 10 a jere shine kusan 1024 a cikin 1, kuma yuwuwar yawan adadin 3 zai zama sau 12 a jere shine 531441 cikin 1?
Ba haka lamarin yake da pompoms ba.
RurekoWannan ra'ayin karya ne, kuskure.Tabbas yuwuwar ci gaba da baƙar fata shine 1024 a cikin 1.Koyaya, a cikin yanayin roulette, wanda shine taron mai zaman kansa, yuwuwar baƙar fata da ja da ke fitowa gaba shine 50% komai yawan sakamakon da aka samu a baya. (* Tsayayyen magana, akwai 0, don haka 48.6%)
Don sanya shi a sauƙaƙe, ra'ayin cewa "saboda za mu iya lura da ci gaba da sakamako, yana da sauƙi don samun kishiyar sakamako" ba daidai ba ne a cikin roulette na abubuwan da suka faru masu zaman kansu.
Gaskiyar cewa yana iya faruwa saboda sakamakon da ya gabata ya kasance kamar wannan baya aiki tare da roulette na abubuwan da suka faru masu zaman kansu, ba kome ba.
Wannan shine dalilin da ya sa yana da ruɗi cewa roulette na bidiyo da roulette ba su da ma'ana gaba ɗaya kuma suna da sauƙin bugawa.
Babu wani abu a can da ke tayar da rashin daidaituwa.Kawai taji dadi.
Wani sanannen misali shi ne abin da ya faru a ranar 1913 ga Agusta, 8 a wasan roulette a gidan caca na Monte Carlo, inda ƙwallon ya tafi baki sau 18 a jere. sau 26 a jere shine (26)26-1Wato sau daya a cikin sau miliyan 6660, wanda lamari ne da ba kasafai ba. Wani dan wasan caca wanda ya yi kuskuren tunanin cewa "roulette yana haifar da rashin daidaituwa a cikin bazuwar, sannan jerin jajayen ja," ya rasa miliyoyin francs ban da baki. " da'irar.
Bakara-chanWace rikici...
RurekoWannan baya shafi abubuwan da ba na zaman kansu ba kamar wasannin kati kamar blackjack ta amfani da katunan ko na wucin gadi.
Dabarun don ƙara yawan adadin nasara ta hanyar kirgawa suna amfani da wannan tasirin.
Bakara-chanHmmm, to fa a can gefe, ya fi kyau a kori itacen inabi?
RurekoWiki ya ce, "Idan ka jujjuya tsabar kuɗi a jere, ɗan caca na iya yanke shawarar cewa za ku iya jujjuyawa. Wannan kyakkyawan ƙarshe ne, la'akari da cewa tsabar kudin na iya zama ba daidai ba. Ee, wannan ba daidai ba ne. Masu caca sun yi imanin cewa babu wani dalili na yin fare a kan tebur, suna gaskanta cewa yana da sauƙin juyawa. dabi’a ce ta samun tagomashi ko mara kyau.” Kamar yadda yake, ana iya cewa tunani mai zurfi ba kuskure ba ne.
Wato imani ne kawai sai dai idan akwai wani abu na hankali.
Kamar yadda yake tare da RSI na FX, mutanen Jafananci suna amfani da shi a baya, amma a cikin kasashen waje yana da amfani da shi azaman alamar tashin hankali na gaba.
Ko kuskure ne ko a'a, shin da gaske yana cin nasara?Haka ne.
Kammalawa: Za a iya amfani da roulette?
Bakara-chanNa san cewa ko da akwai ci gaba da sakamako na lokacin, ba kome.
Sannan ina tunanin ko zan iya yin nasara idan na yi akasin haka?
RurekoTo...Bana tsammanin za ku iya cin nasara koyaushe.
Game da roulette, yuwuwar ba ta haɗuwa ba tare da adadin gwaje-gwajen da ba daidai ba, don haka za a iya cewa sa'a ne kawai, amma a cikin kwarewata, yin fare a wurin da yake zuwa maimakon yin fare a wurin da yake. ba ya zuwa, ina ganin yana da kyau a yi shi.
Ba shakka son zuciya za ta faru a cikin gajeren zangon da muke lura da su.Idan akwai son zuciya da ta fito ko kuma son zuciya ba ta fito ba, ina ganin son zuciyan da ke fitowa ya fi sauki.
Duk da haka, ko da idan kun ci gaba da yin fare kawai akan lambar zafi, akwai lokuta da yawa inda ba za ku ci nasara ba ko da sau ɗaya lokacin da kuka yi fare kuma zai zama lambar sanyi, don haka ba za a iya faɗi ba tare da sharadi ba.
Idan kayi ƙoƙarin korar itacen inabi, za a sami kaset ɗin teleco guda 12 a jere (madaidaicin ja da baki).
Babu wata hanya ta yin hakan ta wata hanya, don haka dole ne ku nemo dokar ku kuma ku yi yaƙi a matsayin dabarar gaskiya.
Bakara-chanTo, idan aka waiwaya, nawa kudi ya narke saboda wannan rugujewar.
Daga yanzu, zan yi ƙoƙarin tabbatar da cewa babu kurakurai.
RurekoDole ne in yi yaƙi bayan sanin cewa babu wata hanyar da za ta ci gaba da yin nasara.
Akwai hanyar samun riba bayan yanke asarar, don haka mu tabbatar da cewa babu kuskure a wannan karon.
Bonus mai yiwuwa mafita
Rubuce-rubucen Gambler wani ra'ayi ne mai zurfi mai zurfi wanda ke da matukar wahala a shawo kansa.Ilimi game da yanayin bazuwar ba koyaushe ya tabbatar da tasiri wajen rage ko kawar da waɗannan alamun kuskure ba. A cikin binciken rairayin bakin teku na 1967 da Swensson, batutuwa sukan yanke tarin katunan zana, zana ɗaya daga cikinsu don nunawa ga batun, kuma suyi hasashen siffar da aka zana akan katin zana na gaba.An raba batutuwa zuwa rukuni biyu, ƙungiya ɗaya ta sanar da wanzuwa da yanayin ɓarnar ɗan wasan kuma an umurce su da su yi tsinkaya ba tare da tsarin katin da ya gabata ba.Ba a bai wa ƙungiyar kulawa da wannan bayanin ba. Hanyoyin mayar da martani na ƙungiyoyin biyu sun kasance iri ɗaya, wanda ke nuna cewa batutuwa a cikin ƙungiyoyin biyu sun yi hasashe bisa tsawon bayyanuwa a jere masu siffar iri ɗaya.Wannan ya kai ga ƙarshe cewa bai isa ba da sanarwa game da bazuwar don rage ɓarnar ɗan caca.
Kwayoyin cutar da ɗan caca na iya raguwa da shekaru. Binciken Fischbein da Schnarch na 1997 ya bincika ƙungiyoyi biyar na biyar, na bakwai, na tara, na goma sha ɗaya, da ɗaliban koleji waɗanda suka kware a koyar da ilimin lissafi.Babu ɗayan batutuwan da ya rigaya ilimi akan yuwuwar.Tambayar ita ce, "Ronnie ya jefar da tsabar kudin sau uku kuma teburin ya fito sau uku.A sakamakon haka, kashi 5% na daliban aji 7, kashi 9% na aji 11, kashi 5% na aji 3, kashi 3% na daliban aji 1 sun amsa cewa “ya karami fiye da yiwuwar fita daga hanya.” Babu wanda ya amsa. Fischbein da Schnarch sun yi hasashen cewa za a iya shawo kan abubuwan da suka dogara da ra'ayin son zuciya irin su heuristics na wakilci tare da shekaru.
A matsayin wata mafita mai yuwuwa, masana ilimin tunanin Gestalt Roney da Trick sun ba da shawarar cewa haɗa kai na iya kawar da wannan ruɗi.Lokacin da aka bayyana abin da zai faru nan gaba, kamar jefar da tsabar kudi, a matsayin wani ɓangare na jerin gwano, ko ta yaya aka saba, mutum yana la'akari da abubuwan da suka shafi abubuwan da suka faru a baya, wanda ke haifar da kuskuren ɗan caca.Za a iya rage wannan ruɗi sosai idan mutum ya ɗauki duk abubuwan da suka faru a matsayin masu zaman kansu.
Sharhi
Jerin sharhi (Guda 1)
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